Doc's Study of War

I’ve been quiet for a long time, but things are starting to look a little tense all around the World. In a lot of ways, I’ve been surprised that nothing major has occurred since the U.S. Elections last year – but I have a very strong feeling that the peace is going to be shattered fairly soon.

The U.S. elections of 2020 and Joe Biden’s election, with his extreme Progressive agenda, are setting us up for a big fall and, unfortunately, the rest of the World is in the same shape as we are at this time and there are going to be some hard times to get through. Trump was many things, but nobody really wanted to mess with him and the U.S. directly. Biden, and the 1960’s-1970’s mentality he still lives in, is a different story and World Events are going to show him the error of his ways pretty soon.

Test Test Test

Interesting article appeared in Radio Free Europe on March 30, 2021. While I’ve been watching Russia in the Artic, my main concern over the past several weeks is China and I’ve been waiting for them to make a move.  Russia and China have become Buddy-Buddy recently (hard to believe that it wil last) and with our obviously weakened political structure here in America, it’s only a matter of time before someone makes a move.

NATO Warplanes Scrambled Amid ‘Unusual Peak’ In Russian Air Activity – Radio Free Europe

In one of the March 29 incidents, Norwegian F-16 jets intercepted Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers, which continued to fly south over the North Sea. (file photo)

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nato-warplanes-scrambled-unusual-peak-air-activity/31178513.html

The next day, March 31, 2021, an anti-Russian group called Inform Napalm published this article:

To occupy Lithuania within 24 hours? However, even 24 days won’t be enough for this: it’ll be a long, fierce, and bloody clash. – Inform Napalm

To occupy Lithuania within 24 hours? However, even 24 days won’t be enough for this: it’ll be a long, fierce, and bloody clash. (informnapalm.org)

Lithuania? Why the sudden interest there?

Then I remembered what occurred in Belarus last year with Lukashenko and the election turmoil. One of the moves Lukashenko made during the turmoil was to close Belarus’ borders with Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine – made a lot of people nervous.

That same day, reports started coming in about a lerge scale buildup of Russian forces on it’s border with Ukraine – which would take a great deal of time to discuss the Crimean and so on.

Kyiv: Russia is amassing troops on Ukrainian border – UA Wire

http://uawire.org/kyiv-russia-is-amassing-troops-on-ukrainian-border

Now for the past 2 days, the reports are coming in constantly about Russian Troop movements in the area.

US military raises Europe threat level to ‘potential imminent crisis:’ report | American Military News

Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An “Imminent Crisis” – The Drive

Russia confirms deployment of its troops near Ukrainian border – DefenseBlog

Russia says any attempt to start a new war in Donbass could destroy Ukraine – TASS | Reuters

Russian ‘troop build-up’ near Ukraine alarms Nato – BBC News

Kremlin says military movements near Ukraine are defensive, pose no threat | Reuters

Now on itself, one could say that all of this was bluster by Russia – they want something. Then this story caught my eye:

Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine – DefenseBlog

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/belarus-deploys-troops-to-border-with-ukraine.html

No one else seems to have picked up on that side of the story, but Lukashenko owes Russia for his remaining in power in Belarus so this might be his payback time

Russia (Putin) has more than enough to really take Ukraine back into the old U.S.S.R – something Putin has talked about recently:

UAWire – Putin sends warning to those living on ‘historic Russian lands’ – posted 03/19/21

http://uawire.org/putin-sends-warning-to-those-living-on-historic-russian-lands

So why would he need Belarus to, at the least, appear threatening to Ukraine? Only to send a message to others in “Historic Russian Lands” that the “Bear” is coming.

There is also a lot of Russian air and naval activity in Eastern Siberia and around Alaska at the moment – good decoy activity.

It is my belief that one little spark – ie. Ukraine – could lead to the major confrontations that some of us are expecting. China will not sit still if Russia draws U.S. attention and the present Administration will not be up to the task.

Just my belief.

February 26, 2021

So I’ve been watching the Artic closely for a number of years now and have told many people to watch what is going on up there. With the recent election and change in Administrations, you know that the new administration will get tested and one of those places is probably going to be the Artic. Biden is not Trump and, as long as Alaska is not threatened, he’s probably not going to do anything about it as it will take attention away from his agenda.

On top of the political turmoil in Washington, D.C., February has shown a marked increase in the sheer number of studies and articles about the situation in the Artic, so it makes me think that something is getting ready to pop up North – Russia and China won’t wait to long to make their move becauses the elections coming up in 2022 could drastically change the Biden agenda.

Today this appears:

“Arctic Bone”: U.S. B-1 Bombers Fly First Mission From Norway Over Eastern Barents Sea, “Russia’s Naval Backyard” – The Aviationist – posted 02/26/21: https://theaviationist.com/2021/02/26/arctic-bone-u-s-b-1-bombers-fly-first-mission-from-norway-over-easter-barents-sea-russias-naval-backyard/ 

File photo of a U.S. Air Force B-1B. In the box, the Barents Sea.

As you can tell from the map insert, this is right in Russia’s backyard and you know they aren’t happy about it.

Russia has issues right now and Putin is going to have to do something if he wants to stay in power and the “Classic” scenario is some kind of “adventurism” to stoke up the public support. Plus he would have China’s backing (quietly) as they too have designs on the Artic. China would probably welcome such a move because it would give them the opportunity to make a strategic move – probably something in the South Pacific along their “9 Dash Line”.

Just keep an eye open and don’t be surprised. Keep an eye on my page at: Doc’s Study of War – Watch The Artic

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Backgound on Russia and China in the Artic – mostly from this month!

Russia and the Artic:  See Doc’s Study of War – Watch The Artic

Northern Sea Route Transit Traffic Remains Modest – High North News –  posted 02/12/21: https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/northern-sea-route-transit-traffic-remains-modest

China and the Artic: See Doc’s Study of War – Watch The Artic

From: Northern Sea Route, Penyelesai Masalah “Malacca Dilemma” (Northern Sea Route, Malacca Dilemma) – Defence Security Asia – posted 02/03/21:  https://defencesecurityasia.com/5057-2-northern-sea-route-malacca-dilemma-berita/ 

The Ice Silk Road: Is China a “Near-Arctic-State”? – Institute for Security and Development Policy – posted 02/2019: https://isdp.eu/publication/the-ice-silk-road-is-china-a-near-artic-state/

US bent on stopping The Polar Silk Road – Asia Times – posted 12/09/20: US bent on stopping The Polar Silk Road – Asia Times

The Dragon roams the Arctic – The Sunday Guardian Live – posted 02/06/21: https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/dragon-roams-arctic

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HOW IS EUROPE VIEWING WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE ARTIC?

A view from Finland: Security and defense in the Arctic – Defense News – posted 05/12/20:  A view from Finland: Security and defense in the Arctic (defensenews.com)

U.S. and Canada Must Cooperate to Defend the Arctic – USNI/Proceedings – posted 07/2020: By Paul Crespo and Jay Heisler July 2020 Vol. 146/7/1,409 : U.S. and Canada Must Cooperate to Defend the Arctic | Proceedings – July 2020 Vol. 146/7/1,409 (usni.org)

The Dragon roams the Arctic – Sunday Guardian – posted 02/06/21 The Dragon roams the Arctic – The Sunday Guardian Live

Switzerland has a role to play in the Arctic – swissinfo.ch – posted 02/07/21: Switzerland has a role to play in the Arctic – SWI swissinfo.ch

The Report: Switzerland and the Arctic – Closer Than You Think:  20201028_Switzerland-and-the-Arctic_WEB.pdf (foraus.ch)

China and Russia ‘aggressively’ targeting Canadians, CSIS director warns – MSN/Global News – posted 02/09/21: China and Russia ‘aggressively’ targeting Canadians, CSIS director warns (msn.com)

Norwegian Intelligence Service: Foreign Intelligence Activity Against Norway Remains Significant Threat – High North News – posted 02/09/21: Norwegian Intelligence Service: Foreign Intelligence Activity Against Norway Remains Significant Threat (highnorthnews.com)

Norwegian Foreign Intelligence Services: China and Russia the Biggest Threats Against Norway – High North News –posted 02/10/20: Norwegian Foreign Intelligence Services: China and Russia the Biggest Threats Against Norway (highnorthnews.com)

Denmark Boosts Arctic Defense Spending – High North News – posted 02/15/21: Denmark Boosts Arctic Defense Spending (highnorthnews.com)

Näin Ruotsi ja Suomi taistelisivat venäläisiä vastaan – Ruotsin johto esittelee avoimesti maiden yhteistä puolustusta – Translation – How Sweden and Finland would fight the Russians – Swedish leadership openly presents their common defence – Iltalehti – posted 02/16/21

Näin Ruotsi ja Suomi taistelisivat venäläisiä vastaan – Ruotsin johto esittelee avoimesti maiden yhteistä puolustusta (iltalehti.fi)

Forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen: – Dialog kan føre til løsninger – High North News – posted 02/18/21 – Translation – Chief of Defence Eirik Kristoffersen: – Dialogue can lead to solutions: Forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen: – Dialog kan føre til løsninger (highnorthnews.com)

The Report: Conflict Prevention and Security Cooperation in the Arctic Region
Frameworks of the Future  by Walter Berbrick and Lars Saunes, Project Directors
September 2020

NEWPORT ARCTIC SCHOLARS INITIATIVE 2020 SCHOLARS – U.S. Naval War College: Microsoft Word – Conflict Prevention and Security Cooperation in the Arctic Region-Frameworks of the Future Report.docx (usnwc.edu)

Russia announces multiple missiles towards Bear Gap as US Air Force bombers deploy to Norway for first time – Eye On The Artic – posted 02/18/21: Russia announces multiple missiles towards Bear Gap as US Air Force bombers deploy to Norway for first time – Eye on the Arctic (rcinet.ca)

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HOW IS THE UNITED STATES VIEWING WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE ARTIC?

Reports and Strategies

Coast Guard Artic Strategic Outlook – April 2019:  https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?  uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3Ab491be72-101b-46d8-83ce-625575a06b4c

Navy, Marines Tell Congress Emphasis on Arctic is Growing – USNI News – posted 03/20/20: Navy, Marines Tell Congress Emphasis on Arctic is Growing – USNI News

THE DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE ARCTIC STRATEGY – posted 07/21/20

ENSURING A STABLE ARCTIC THROUGH VIGILANCE, POWER PROJECTION, COOPERATION, AND PREPARATION

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:50daf994-dc03-41af-8e07-8bdabc5eec4b

DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY A Strategic Blueprint for the Arctic – posted 01/06/21: https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:a6478fd4-5a21-447e-97e3-641ea2450553#pageNum=

Defend America’s Arctic from China and Russia – Washington Examiner – Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy – posted 02/17/21: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/defend-americas-arctic-from-china-and-russia

Army’s new Arctic strategy takes shape in Alaska’s frigid interior – Army Times – posted 02/18/21: https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2021/02/17/armys-new-arctic-strategy-takes-shape-in-alaskas-frigid-interior/

U.S. Navy Reports On Arctic And North Atlantic – Naval News – posted 02/20/21: U.S. Navy Reports on Arctic and North Atlantic – Naval News

“What we do know though is that what happens in the Arctic has a gullible impact because the region really is at a crossroads of geopolitical, economic, and even security trends.  There’s economic potential because of the abundance of natural resources now with the ice melting the promise of opening maritime routes. Russia, for example, is investing heavily to improve its economic sectors along the northern coast, and at the same time, they’re militarizing the northern flank. China is in the Arctic as well, trying to expand their economic influence, and we see them positioning themselves to expand their military influence as well.” 

“The Arctic is changing, which is why it’s a discussion point and a critical juncture.  The U.S. is an Arctic nation and the Navy has been up there for quite a while. 
“I would just like to say, for the Record, [that] they [China] are not an Arctic Nation.  They’re 900 nautical miles from the Arctic Circle, although they have an Arctic Policy Document where they refer to themselves as a near-Arctic nation, but they are not.”

KEFLAVIK, Iceland (Nov. 16, 2019) A P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft assigned to both Patrol Squadron (VP) 4 and VP-26 is parked on the apron of Keflavik Air Base. VP-4 is forward deployed to the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations and is assigned to Commander, Task Force 67, responsible for tactical control of deployed maritime patrol and reconnaissance squadrons throughout Europe and Africa. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Juan S. Sua/Released)

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U.S. Force Preparations

Arctic and Special Operations: Preparing for the Next Battle | SOFREP – posted 10/27/20: Arctic and Special Operations: Preparing for the Next Battle | SOFREP

U.S. Marine Corps is preparing to fight in the extreme cold – Global Wave News – posted 11/29/20: U.S. Marine Corps is preparing to fight in the extreme cold – Global Wave News

Coast Guard icebreaker returns to Arctic for first time in 38 years – Task & Purpose  – posted 12/01/20: Coast Guard icebreaker returns to Arctic for first time in 38 years (taskandpurpose.com)

Marine Corps Fielding New Cold Weather Boot in 2021 – MilitarySpot.com – posted 12/01/20: Marine Corps Fielding New Cold Weather Boot in 2021 – MilitarySpot.com

U.S. Army preparing its heavy dump trucks for extremely cold environment – DefenseBlog – posted 02/03/21: U.S. Army preparing its heavy dump trucks for extremely cold environment (defence-blog.com)

US deploying B-1 bombers to Norway to send a message to Russia – CNNPolitics – posted  02/08/21: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/08/politics/us-b-1-bombers-norway/index.html

New U.S. Arctic strategy focuses on ‘day-to-day competition’ with Russia and China | The Independent Barents Observer – posted 02/08/21:  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2021/01/new-us-arctic-strategy-focuses-day-day-competition-russia-and-china

U.S. Marines learn how to drift armored vehicles on snow – Defense Blog – posted 02/15/21: https://defence-blog.com/news/u-s-marines-learn-how-to-drift-armored-vehicles-on-snow.html

Photo by Lance Cpl. Patrick King

50-mile winds and no sunlight: Welcome to the military’s ‘Cool School’ – Task & Purpose – posted 02/16/21: https://taskandpurpose.com/culture/military-arctic-survival-school-air-force/

East Coast Navy Divers Take on a Minnesota Lake, As Service Eyes Greater Arctic Presence – USNI News – posted 02/19/21: East Coast Navy Divers Take on a Minnesota Lake, As Service Eyes Greater Arctic Presence – USNI News

From the article –

“Slack said MDSU 2 hasn’t specifically been given instructions from higher up in the Navy to prepare for any specific Arctic missions or training, but he said it’s clear what direction the Navy is going in, and MDSU 2 is among the support units the Navy would rely on if a mission were to suddenly arise.

This year’s iteration of the annual ice diving training has special significance “to be sure that if we do get called upon, that the Navy divers clear the way for the U.S. naval forces and stand ready to conduct these diving and salvage operations in any environment.”

A diving tent is set up on frozen lake during ice dive training at Camp Ripley in Little Falls, Minn., Feb. 16, 2021. US Navy Photo

I’ve been quiet for a time because there has just been to much going on in the World recently.  The United States has not calmed down since our presidentual election last fall –  in fact the divide has just gotten worse. COVID-19, in a many ways, has just made it worse because the American Public Health System has failed miserably and the Politicians just keep on committing the same mistakes that brought us to this point in time without trying to correct the situation.  The Political Class, as a whole, have continuously shown their disdain for the American Public and it’s getting even more disgusting as the Pandemic response and the Political turmoil continues.

The American Media – Freedom of the Press, unbiased reporting and all of that happy horseshit – has just made matters worse. When the flat out lies sprouting from Media “Anchors” mouths are accepted as the “Truth”, we are in a lot of trouble. I’ve given up watching the National American Media and even most of the Local News Media because they just keep “parroting” each others words in an attempt to get the public to swing towards what they want us to know and believe. Their reporting of “World” News would be laughable if it just wasn’t so damn disheartening in its lack of coverage. Most Americans have no idea of what is happening in the World and truthfully, don’t care.

So, as America has continued to turn inwards in one of the most self-destructive manners possible, the World has noted the turmoil and is adjusting to the new World Order. As I remember from some political thriller from the 60’s or 70’s – “We are on the last reel of the movie ‘The American Dream’ and it’s just about to run out”.  Being an older individual, hopefully I won’t be around to see the “Dream” end, but if I am around I won’t go quietly into the night.

A lot is going on in the World and I am surprised that nothing drastic has occurred in the past several months – YET.  

China is buying the World through it’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and if the billons of dollars they have paid out to countries aren’t repaid they take what they want – be it resources, Ports or other infrastructure. BRI is taking place on all continents and regions and soon they will own the World – be it peacefully or by military force. The money has to run out at some point and then it will be by force.

Russia is slowly falling apart and, like a wounded animal, is even more dangerous in it’s present self-inflicted state. It’s just a matter of which comes first – the government being overthrown or the government starting a war to prevent from being overthrown. I really don’t think the present Russian Government can survive in the long run, but it will go down in fire and brimstone.

More in the near future.

Back in July of this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan had an approximately month long “Conflict” but resolved nothing and just racheted up tensions in the area between Russia and Turkey. On my page The Study Of War – Is It Coming? I listed some of the articles from that short period of time – Rusif Huseynov article below is one of those articles.

Eskalation des armenisch-aserbaidschanischen Konflikts: Was passiert derzeit? (computer translated) Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalates again – The European

https://www.theeuropean.de/rusif-huseynov/eskalation-des-armenisch-aserbaidschanischen-konflikts-was-passiert-derzeit/

Sudden, short and bloody and then quiet. Then 2 1/2 months later I wake up to:

Azerbaijan, Armenia On War Footing After Reports Of Casualties In Heavy Fighting

https://www.ibtimes.com/azerbaijan-armenia-war-footing-after-reports-casualties-heavy-fighting-3052603

Armenia Declares Martial Law, Prepares For A Possible War As Border Conflict Escalates With Azerbaijan – The Eursian Times – posted 09/27/20

https://eurasiantimes.com/armenia-declares-martial-law-amid-border-conlfict-with-azerbaijan/

Sounds a little bit more serious this time!

My worry is that this just might be the spark that lights the fuse in other areas – sort of similar to what happened in World War 1. While the World’s attention is on Armenia and Azerbaijan, who will use this conflict to settle scores and bite off disputed lands?

Just a few places to keep an eye on:

• Belarus – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kalingrad
• China/India
• East and South China Seas
• Taiwan (probably not)

Just a thought or two

Doc’s Study of War – Belarus

Doc’s Study of War – China/India

Doc’s Study of War – Eastern and South China Sea

Doc’s Study of War – Taiwan

Weaponizing the Belt and Road Initiative

DANIEL R. RUSSEL and BLAKE H. BERGER – SEPTEMBER 2020

A REPORT OF THE ASIA SOCIETY POLICY INSTITUTE

https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/2020-09/Weaponizing%20the%20Belt%20and%20Road%20Initiative_0.pdf

Original Article:   https://www.theafricareport.com/41643/is-china-weaponizing-ports-built-along-the-belt-road-initiative/

My page: Doc’s Study of War – China’s “Belts and Roads Initiative”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=KJq8yki09Fs

Chinese Marines train to fight with bayonets on June 9 in Shandong, China.  GETTY IMAGES

By: Michael Peck

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2020/09/09/china-is-arming-its-soldiers-with-medieval-halberds-to-fight-india/?fbclid=IwAR3tZ5pBFYRU-q_0f8u_tsnmljO3a35dehX48WbBLZsmo7_AAoahK9qGM2U#4f6944ea5180

Is the standoff between China and India going to escalate soon? Probably!  Is the standoff between China and India going to escalate soon? Probably!        

Four days ago I published the above blog about the possible use of medievel weapons by the Chinese in the ongoing standoff between China and India.  Later that day, Forbes published this article along the same lines. While a somewhat “Tongue-In-Cheek” article talking about the use of medievel weapons, it does miss the mark about the “environmental conditions” that would make modern weaponry somewhat useless in the areas concerned.  If nothing else, the Korean Conflict of the 50’s proved the limits of modern weaponry in extreme cold and only idiots would not take those lessons to heart – and I don’t think the Chinese or Indian commanders are that stupid. Tanks, jets, artillery, assault rifles and missle launchers are great, but only if they work.

Mr. Peck does make some good points in his article and gives the reader the basic on WHY the use of modern weaponry is forbidden by treaty in the contested area –

“Why does the People’s Liberation Army resemble a Society for Creative Anachronism joust, or live-action Dungeons & Dragons players? There’s actually a very practical reason. A 1996 agreement regarding the disputed border – known as the Line of Actual Control, or LAC – states that “neither side shall open fire or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometers [1.3 miles] from the line of actual control.” China and India have skirmished for years – and even fought a war in 1962 — along the 2,500-mile LAC, a loosely defined border that comprises some of the harshest terrain on Earth, including  the Himalaya mountains.”

AND

“Which suggests that the firearms-free border zone will continue for now, though that doesn’t mean violence-free. China is now recruiting mixed martial artists for the army, while India has sent commandos trained in martial arts to the Tibetan border.”

AND

An interesting question will be how India responds to China’s medieval arsenal. India has a rich history of edged weapons, including the famous kukri knife wielded by Gurkha soldiers, the curved talwar sword, and the chakkar, a sharp throwing ring capable of beheading enemies (on the popular TV show Xena: Princess Warrior, Xena uses a similar weapon called the chakram).

– he does seem try and make it a “light-hearted” reason there won’t be a conflict – “Who would use medievel weapons today” seems to be his thought pattern. He does mention the historical context in which both countries have a history of edged weapons, but, again, in today’s world?

Again, environmental issues dictate what can be used in conflicts and that cannot be forgotten. Both sides have built up the infrastructure, troop strengths and such throughout the area and disengagement at this stage is possible, but I’m not holding my breath

For futher information check out my page at –

Doc’s Study of War – China/India